Sunday, May 8, 2011

Broad Market Drops 1.7% As Commodities Get Hammered!

The big story last week was Commodities which got hammered shedding 9% off of the CRB index. Crude tumbled 14%, but it was silver that took top honors plummeting 27%. The volatility and selling pressure in commodities brought down equities. No doubt in our minds that this was an over correction in the commodities sector. As is typical in the market, moves get over extended to the upside and downside and that is what happened with commodities. We fully expect commodities to bounce back and now is a great time to pick up energy stocks and other commodities including silver. The US economy is showing clear signs of strength, in fact the jobs reports last week were very encouraging. The global economic growth story also seems very much on track. Commodities and equities are poised to continue their bullish runs, so take advantage and buy assets that have experienced sharp pull backs. Earnings season is winding down, and it is clear that corporate profits are very strong, another sign of an economy very much on the mend. We like to sit mostly on the sidelines during the three heaviest weeks of quarterly earnings reporting, but now are ready to get more aggressive with market trading. We have significant cash levels in our options portfolio and growth portfolios to invest, and plan more stock rotation out of our retirement portfolio. The market could remain choppy through the summer months, but we think it is worth the risk to buy ahead of what we think will be a strong fourth quarter.

Momentum And Value (MAV Screen): Breakout Stocks To Buy!

What Stock Tips do we have? Our complete list of stocks is available on our web site. We now have nine stocks on our watch list, all for purchase, in addition to the stocks we already own. Five of the nine stocks are carryovers from our prior week list, and all remain attractively priced after the recent market pullback. We added four new stocks including Synalloy (SYNL), Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC), Altera (ALTR), and Caterpillar (CAT). Synalloy operates in two segments, metals and specialty chemicals. SYNL is a smaller company and the stock is more thinly traded, but the company has been putting up very good growth numbers. CACC is a provider of auto loans to consumers and is experiencing loan growth and improving credit quality as the economy continues to rebound. Altera designs, manufactures, and market programmable logic devices and integrated circuits. Altera 1Q performance was outstanding with EPS increasing 46%, and the company revised their revenue forecast upward for 2Q. The semiconductor sector has been beaten up as of late, but Altera has weathered the storm better than most. Caterpillar (CAT) is a well known company engaged in the manufacture of construction and mining equipment. CAT is a quality company and really is a play on the growing global economy and increasing demands for infrastructure around the world. Long term we think this is a great stock, but would prefer to buy on a larger pullback. The stock lost 4% last week in the commodities selloff, another 4 or 5% decline would make the stock very attractive to us. In summary, we plan to get more aggressive buying stocks and options now that 1ST Quarter earnings season is winding down.

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